NBA Analysis - Flying Under the Radar - 01.12.08

[Formula]

These are the NBA teams that are typically being undervalued by oddsmakers.

1. Portland Trail Blazers - the second best team in the western conference
2. New Jersey Nets - harris is the best point guard in the eastern conference
3. Sacramento Kings - no stars yet but young, athletic, and talented
4. Indiana Pacers - their offense gives them a chance in any game
5. Charlotte Bobcats - solid guard play, effective role players, and a great coach

[Orbital]

Oklahoma City Thunder is going to be next. Every pathetic shit has its bottom. I will take them +33.5 at LAL I even would like alternative spread there for them. They are underestimated not only by bookies but also by competitors. They almost smashed down Suns.

[Formula]

Oklahoma City Thunder is going to be next. Every pathetic shit has its bottom. I will take them +33.5 at LAL I even would like alternative spread there for them. They are underestimated not only by bookies but also by competitors. They almost smashed down Suns.

Generally every team that is terrible will have value when paired against teams that are the best in the league. That has more to do with the great teams being overvalued than the terrible teams being undervalued. The teams I have listed are typically undervalued no matter what the match up happens to be. In the case of Oklahoma City, many people thought they would improve versus last year since their young players would be older and they were going to a new home where the fans would appreciate them. Instead of improving, they have only gotten worse. Much of this can be attributed to hiring one of the worst coaches in NBA history. Now that they have gotten rid of him, maybe they will improve but their personnel is still awful.

Almost beating Phoenix is nothing special considering the Suns are one of the most overvalued teams in the NBA. The Suns will have great difficulty even making the playoffs this season as there are 7 teams in the west that are clearly better than them and only 8 teams get to go.

Western Conference teams better than Phoenix:
1. Los Angeles Lakers
2. Portland Trail Blazers
3. Houston Rockets
4. Utah Jazz
5. San Antonio Spurs
6. New Orleans Hornets
7. Denver Nuggets

It will be a battle between Denver, Dallas, and Phoenix for the 8 spot. Right now Dallas is a better team than Phoenix even though their record is not as good, and Denver is better than both with the leadership of Billups and a healthy Nene providing balance on the offensive end. It is a long season and things will change, but right now Phoenix has to be worried about their prospects.

[Jendrul]

Formula wrote:

hese are the NBA teams that are typically being undervalued by oddsmakers.

1. Portland Trail Blazers - the second best team in the western conference
2. New Jersey Nets - harris is the best point guard in the eastern conference
3. Sacramento Kings - no stars yet but young, athletic, and talented
4. Indiana Pacers - their offense gives them a chance in any game
5. Charlotte Bobcats - solid guard play, effective role players, and a great coach

With first three teams definitely agree,there r able to beat everybody,4 example last two performances of New Jersey away were great,winning in Utah and Suns in good odds,Harris was yesterday absolut.fantastic,Portland yesterd.also was doing well in Detroit..and I still regret I didnt bet Sacramento in NO,I didnt believe them so much to be honest but 4 odds what were really high I should have bet at least 4small amount,big value,Orbi has already mentioned this match...

[Formula]

With first three teams definitely agree,there r able to beat everybody,4 example last two performances of New Jersey away were great,winning in Utah and Suns in good odds,Harris was yesterday absolut.fantastic,Portland yesterd.also was doing well in Detroit..and I still regret I didnt bet Sacramento in NO,I didnt believe them so much to be honest but 4 odds what were really high I should have bet at least 4small amount,big value,Orbi has already mentioned this match...

You are completely right. Based on the match up for any given night, these teams can have incredible value. The Sacramento line you are speaking of was +1350 and should have been +400. Focus on the match up from a position to position standpoint and try to determine if there are style clashes that can raise win probability. Any team in the NBA that has a perfect night will beat even the best teams if they have a poor night.

[Orbital]

question is if Boston can have poor night tonite..

[Formula]

question is if Boston can have poor night tonite..

It's a comparison between 2 considerably overvalued teams, but Boston is the most overvalued. Boston is playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and 4th game in 6 nights which can be difficult for a team that relies on its oldest players for the bulk of its scoring. Orlando is touted as a spectacular road team, which they are, but they are being hit hard by injuries at the guard positions. Orlando is also playing its 4th game in 6 nights and although they are young, they are short-handed so tired legs will play a role for them as well. All these factors point to an incredible amount of deviation. Value on Orlando+8.5 and good value at +425.

[Orbital]

I am curious about MIA/GSW
it can be nice over and huge under too, ideal game for live betting
what does Formula projection say?

[Jendrul]

Did anybody bet Indiana last night?Deadly return.A lot of matches were very interesting,especially last quarters,4ex. in Dallas,N.Y.,SA,..and in the end troubles of tired Nets...really this year seems that everybody can win the match the same way as loose...I hope it will last a long time.