Formula NBA - Solar Cowboy

[Formula]

Solar Cowboy

Dallas Mavericks vs. Phoenix Suns
Raw Projection: 209.5
Injury Index: -2
Backend Index: -3
Energy Index: +1
Matchup Index: +1.5
FT Index: +2
Final Projection: 209

Selection: OVER 204

[Jendrul]

n1

[valuelama]

Hi Formula,
can you tell us something about your system? It looks carefully worked-out.

[Formula]

Hi Formula,
can you tell us something about your system? It looks carefully worked-out.

I hesitate to call it a system, because systems generally have strict rules that should be adhered to in all cases. Many elements of my analysis would be considered too subjective to allow it to be called a system, but I'll try to answer your question beyond that.

The raw projection is a relatively simple mathematical evaluation of data on team averages. Something similar is most certainly used by the linesmakers in establishing the opening line. This is what functions as the basis.

The index analysis is also used by the books to factor in strength and weakness based on available data for trends, injuries, scheduling, etc. All these indices are compiled to generate the true line or "Final Projection".

The single index I do not apply which the linesmakers do is the bias index. The bias index is used by books to account for the expected reaction to readily available fundamental data and is generally inconsistent with true factors. It is the method by which books protect themselves from overexposure. Essentially it is compiled from data only available to them concerning their betting population. For a technical bettor, this is a window of opportunity in which significant value can be derived.

[LadyMaster]

Hi Formula, nice tip but can you provide us with some more data? What is your win/loose rate recalculated with respect to odds you bet on, amount of bets so far..? Because I still don't believe it can work in long-term range, because I believe - if there are profiting high-volume books and obviously there are - this or whatever else system of such kind has to be self-descructive (if it doesn't fail straightaway at the beginning). But it's only my opinion.

[Formula]

Hi Formula, nice tip but can you provide us with some more data? What is your win/loose rate recalculated with respect to odds you bet on, amount of bets so far..? Because I still don't believe it can work in long-term range, because I believe - if there are profiting high-volume books and obviously there are - this or whatever else system of such kind has to be self-descructive (if it doesn't fail straightaway at the beginning). But it's only my opinion.

I am not here to advertise any kind of system at all. I won't publish any win/loss record in hopes of artificially creating a sense of confidence in the selections I offer. As I stated previously, while a significant amount of data is used in formulating my opinion, there is still subjective analysis involved in the final decision for each index. My conclusions can not be replicated by applying any set of fixed parameters.

I only hope that people will enjoy my posts and measure my selections based on results they can verify. I do not claim to be some spectacular bettor capable of winning every time I bet.